Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.421019 1.608654 1.807194 2.032450 2.280441 2.544648 2.846927
2025-01-19 1.140382 1.393004 1.676794 2.017469 2.413477 2.857410 3.390736
2025-01-26 0.970582 1.273007 1.632035 2.085540 2.638602 3.286473 4.097722
2025-02-02 0.823752 1.159545 1.580368 2.138553 2.850681 3.719458 4.849011
2025-02-09 0.690349 1.043880 1.511578 2.162340 3.029324 4.128329 5.608018
2025-02-16 0.581418 0.944521 1.451279 2.189820 3.215085 4.562103 6.435034
2025-02-23 0.471582 0.826291 1.349661 2.149286 3.306008 4.880268 7.138669
2025-03-02 0.371311 0.704890 1.226511 2.062858 3.323715 5.100474 7.728195
2025-03-09 0.309298 0.633355 1.168224 2.064374 3.466300 5.503453 8.597309
2025-03-16 0.252578 0.559800 1.095881 2.034824 3.558602 5.840355 9.395800
2025-03-23 0.220793 0.525355 1.083565 2.099640 3.801091 6.414264 10.574296
2025-03-30 0.178571 0.461483 1.010049 2.052755 3.860485 6.714916 11.365724
2025-04-06 0.146202 0.411903 0.957780 2.041633 3.986484 7.141873 12.399953
2025-04-13 0.117785 0.363553 0.899725 2.012607 4.079536 7.524125 13.391858
2025-04-20 0.101719 0.340184 0.888101 2.068925 4.326021 8.171685 14.841635
2025-04-27 0.086976 0.316019 0.870749 2.111995 4.552769 8.802106 16.301690
2025-05-04 0.072749 0.288783 0.841709 2.127701 4.730329 9.360881 17.676583
2025-05-11 0.061116 0.265178 0.816695 2.148402 4.918793 9.950178 19.134531
2025-05-18 0.048417 0.233154 0.764654 2.103386 4.974921 10.309226 20.221712
2025-05-25 0.036567 0.198388 0.697609 2.014481 4.933779 10.488985 21.008278
2025-06-01 0.029924 0.179795 0.669927 2.012713 5.069803 11.000339 22.399522
2025-06-08 0.023680 0.159392 0.632264 1.981168 5.139528 11.390846 23.594171
2025-06-15 0.020685 0.151974 0.631850 2.042398 5.413741 12.184847 25.551735